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The Measurement of Subjective Probability
- Edward J. R. Elliott
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- Published online:
- 13 April 2024
- Print publication:
- 02 May 2024
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- Element
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Beliefs come in degrees, and we often represent those degrees with numbers. We might say, for example, that we are 90% confident in the truth of some scientific hypothesis, or only 30% confident in the success of some risky endeavour. But what do these numbers mean? What, in other words, is the underlying psychological reality to which the numbers correspond? And what constitutes a meaningful difference between numerically distinct representations of belief? In this Element, we discuss the main approaches to the measurement of belief. These fall into two broad categories-epistemic and decision-theoretic-with divergent foundations in the theory of measurement. Epistemic approaches explain the measurement of belief by appeal to relations between belief states themselves, whereas decision-theoretic approaches appeal to relations between beliefs and desires in the production of choice and preferences.
Contributors
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- By Janice Capel Anderson, S. Wesley Ariarajah, Constantine Belezos, Ian Boxall, Marc Zvi Brettler, Edward Breuer, Daniel Bruno, Mark Chapman, W. T. Dickens, Mark W. Elliott, Eldon Epp, Tassilo Erhardt, Timothy Gorringe, Harriet Harris, Peter C. Hodgson, Leslie Howsam, Werner G. Jeanrond, Scott McLaren, Wayne A. Meeks, Néstor Míguez, Stephen D. Moore, Robert Morgan, Halvor Moxnes, Peter Neuner, Mark Noll, Jorunn Økland, Gaye Ortiz, John Riches, Christopher Rowland, Nicolaas A. Rupke, Edmund J. Rybarczyk, Lamin Sanneh, Constantine Scouteris, R. S. Sugirtharajah, Willard M. Swartley, William R. Telford, David Thompson, Elena Volkova, J. R. Watson, Gerald West, Michael Wheeler, Keith Whitelam
- Edited by John Riches, University of Glasgow
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- Book:
- The New Cambridge History of the Bible
- Published online:
- 09 June 2015
- Print publication:
- 13 April 2015, pp xi-xii
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- By Dale C. Allison, John Barton, Pierre-Maurice Bogaert, Jonathan G. Campbell, James Carleton Paget, J. F. Coakley, John J. Collins, Kristin De Troyer, Gilles Dorival, Mark Edwards, J. K. Elliott, Mark W. Elliott, Wolf-Peter Funk, Thomas Graumann, Lucy Grig, Carol Harrison, C. T. R. Hayward, Michael J. Hollerich, William Horbury, Larry W. Hurtado, Jan Joosten, Adam Kamesar, Chris Keith, Geoffrey Khan, Wolfram Kinzig, Winrich Löhr, David C. Parker, Gerard Rouwhorst, Joachim Schaper, William M. Schniedewind, Günter Stemberger, Emanuel Tov, Eugene Ulrich, Joseph Verheyden, James W. Watts, Peter J. Williams, Frances M. Young
- Edited by James Carleton Paget, University of Cambridge, Joachim Schaper, University of Aberdeen
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- Book:
- The New Cambridge History of the Bible
- Published online:
- 05 May 2013
- Print publication:
- 09 May 2013, pp x-xi
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Contributors
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- By Pierre Amarenco, Adrià Arboix, Marcel Arnold, Robert W. Baloh, John Bamford, Jason J. S. Barton, Claudio L. Bassetti, Christopher F. Bladin, Julien Bogousslavsky, Julian Bösel, Marie-Germaine Bousser, Thomas Brandt, John C. M. Brust, Erica C. S. Camargo, Louis R. Caplan, Emmanuel Carrera, Carlo W. Cereda, Seemant Chaturvedi, Claudia Chaves, Chin-Sang Chung, Isabelle Crassard, Hans Christoph Diener, Marianne Dieterich, Ralf Dittrich, Geoffrey A. Donnan, Paul Eslinger, Conrado J. Estol, Edward Feldmann, José M. Ferro, Joseph Ghika, Daniel Hanley, Ahamad Hassan, Cathy Helgason, Argye E. Hillis, Marc Hommel, Carlos S. Kase, Julia Kejda-Scharler, Jong S. Kim, Rainer Kollmar, Joshua Kornbluth, Sandeep Kumar, Emre Kumral, Hyung Lee, Didier Leys, Eric Logigian, Mauro Manconi, Elisabeth B. Marsh, Randolph S. Marshall, Isabel P. Martins, Josep Lluís Martí-Vilalta, Heinrich P. Mattle, Jérome Mawet, Mikael Mazighi, Patrik Michel, Jay Preston Mohr, Thierry Moulin, Sandra Narayanan, Kwang-Yeol Park, Florence Pasquier, Charles Pierrot-Deseilligny, Nils Petersen, Raymond Reichwein, E. Bernd Ringelstein, Gabriel J. E. Rinkel, Elliott D. Ross, Arnaud Saj, Martin A. Samuels, Jeremy D. Schmahmann, Stefan Schwab, Florian Stögbauer, Mathias Sturzenegger, Laurent Tatu, Pariwat Thaisetthawatkul, Dagmar Timmann, Jan van Gijn, Ana Verdelho, Francois Vingerhoets, Patrik Vuilleumier, Fabrice Vuillier, Eelco F. M. Wijdicks, Shirley H. Wray, Wendy C. Ziai
- Edited by Louis R. Caplan, Jan van Gijn
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- Book:
- Stroke Syndromes, 3ed
- Published online:
- 05 August 2012
- Print publication:
- 12 July 2012, pp vii-x
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Contributors
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- By Aakash Agarwala, Linda S. Aglio, Rae M. Allain, Paul D. Allen, Houman Amirfarzan, Yasodananda Kumar Areti, Amit Asopa, Edwin G. Avery, Patricia R. Bachiller, Angela M. Bader, Rana Badr, Sibinka Bajic, David J. Baker, Sheila R. Barnett, Rena Beckerly, Lorenzo Berra, Walter Bethune, Sascha S. Beutler, Tarun Bhalla, Edward A. Bittner, Jonathan D. Bloom, Alina V. Bodas, Lina M. Bolanos-Diaz, Ruma R. Bose, Jan Boublik, John P. Broadnax, Jason C. Brookman, Meredith R. Brooks, Roland Brusseau, Ethan O. Bryson, Linda A. Bulich, Kenji Butterfield, William R. Camann, Denise M. Chan, Theresa S. Chang, Jonathan E. Charnin, Mark Chrostowski, Fred Cobey, Adam B. Collins, Mercedes A. Concepcion, Christopher W. Connor, Bronwyn Cooper, Jeffrey B. Cooper, Martha Cordoba-Amorocho, Stephen B. Corn, Darin J. Correll, Gregory J. Crosby, Lisa J. Crossley, Deborah J. Culley, Tomas Cvrk, Michael N. D'Ambra, Michael Decker, Daniel F. Dedrick, Mark Dershwitz, Francis X. Dillon, Pradeep Dinakar, Alimorad G. Djalali, D. John Doyle, Lambertus Drop, Ian F. Dunn, Theodore E. Dushane, Sunil Eappen, Thomas Edrich, Jesse M. Ehrenfeld, Jason M. Erlich, Lucinda L. Everett, Elliott S. Farber, Khaldoun Faris, Eddy M. Feliz, Massimo Ferrigno, Richard S. Field, Michael G. Fitzsimons, Hugh L. Flanagan Jr., Vladimir Formanek, Amanda A. Fox, John A. Fox, Gyorgy Frendl, Tanja S. Frey, Samuel M. Galvagno Jr., Edward R. Garcia, Jonathan D. Gates, Cosmin Gauran, Brian J. Gelfand, Simon Gelman, Alexander C. Gerhart, Peter Gerner, Omid Ghalambor, Christopher J. Gilligan, Christian D. Gonzalez, Noah E. Gordon, William B. Gormley, Thomas J. Graetz, Wendy L. Gross, Amit Gupta, James P. Hardy, Seetharaman Hariharan, Miriam Harnett, Philip M. Hartigan, Joaquim M. Havens, Bishr Haydar, Stephen O. Heard, James L. Helstrom, David L. Hepner, McCallum R. Hoyt, Robert N. Jamison, Karinne Jervis, Stephanie B. Jones, Swaminathan Karthik, Richard M. Kaufman, Shubjeet Kaur, Lee A. Kearse Jr., John C. Keel, Scott D. Kelley, Albert H. Kim, Amy L. Kim, Grace Y. Kim, Robert J. Klickovich, Robert M. Knapp, Bhavani S. Kodali, Rahul Koka, Alina Lazar, Laura H. Leduc, Stanley Leeson, Lisa R. Leffert, Scott A. LeGrand, Patricio Leyton, J. Lance Lichtor, John Lin, Alvaro A. Macias, Karan Madan, Sohail K. Mahboobi, Devi Mahendran, Christine Mai, Sayeed Malek, S. Rao Mallampati, Thomas J. Mancuso, Ramon Martin, Matthew C. Martinez, J. A. Jeevendra Martyn, Kai Matthes, Tommaso Mauri, Mary Ellen McCann, Shannon S. McKenna, Dennis J. McNicholl, Abdel-Kader Mehio, Thor C. Milland, Tonya L. K. Miller, John D. Mitchell, K. Annette Mizuguchi, Naila Moghul, David R. Moss, Ross J. Musumeci, Naveen Nathan, Ju-Mei Ng, Liem C. Nguyen, Ervant Nishanian, Martina Nowak, Ala Nozari, Michael Nurok, Arti Ori, Rafael A. Ortega, Amy J. Ortman, David Oxman, Arvind Palanisamy, Carlo Pancaro, Lisbeth Lopez Pappas, Benjamin Parish, Samuel Park, Deborah S. Pederson, Beverly K. Philip, James H. Philip, Silvia Pivi, Stephen D. Pratt, Douglas E. Raines, Stephen L. Ratcliff, James P. Rathmell, J. Taylor Reed, Elizabeth M. Rickerson, Selwyn O. Rogers Jr., Thomas M. Romanelli, William H. Rosenblatt, Carl E. Rosow, Edgar L. Ross, J. Victor Ryckman, Mônica M. Sá Rêgo, Nicholas Sadovnikoff, Warren S. Sandberg, Annette Y. Schure, B. Scott Segal, Navil F. Sethna, Swapneel K. Shah, Shaheen F. Shaikh, Fred E. Shapiro, Torin D. Shear, Prem S. Shekar, Stanton K. Shernan, Naomi Shimizu, Douglas C. Shook, Kamal K. Sikka, Pankaj K. Sikka, David A. Silver, Jeffrey H. Silverstein, Emily A. Singer, Ken Solt, Spiro G. Spanakis, Wolfgang Steudel, Matthias Stopfkuchen-Evans, Michael P. Storey, Gary R. Strichartz, Balachundhar Subramaniam, Wariya Sukhupragarn, John Summers, Shine Sun, Eswar Sundar, Sugantha Sundar, Neelakantan Sunder, Faraz Syed, Usha B. Tedrow, Nelson L. Thaemert, George P. Topulos, Lawrence C. Tsen, Richard D. Urman, Charles A. Vacanti, Francis X. Vacanti, Joshua C. Vacanti, Assia Valovska, Ivan T. Valovski, Mary Ann Vann, Susan Vassallo, Anasuya Vasudevan, Kamen V. Vlassakov, Gian Paolo Volpato, Essi M. Vulli, J. Matthias Walz, Jingping Wang, James F. Watkins, Maxwell Weinmann, Sharon L. Wetherall, Mallory Williams, Sarah H. Wiser, Zhiling Xiong, Warren M. Zapol, Jie Zhou
- Edited by Charles Vacanti, Scott Segal, Pankaj Sikka, Richard Urman
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- Book:
- Essential Clinical Anesthesia
- Published online:
- 05 January 2012
- Print publication:
- 11 July 2011, pp xv-xxviii
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